Fantasy Football Rankings: RBs One Analyst Likes More Than Consensus

ECR stands for “Expert consensus rating,” which means the fantasy football industry average ratings and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site to site). This continuous positional series go highlight some big differences between the ECR and my own ranks.

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Running Backs I like more than consensus

Breece Hall, New York Jets (ECR = RB3 vs My Rating = RB2)

Hall averaged 0.5 PPR fantasy points (17.3) in Week 5 of last season when he began seeing full snaps upon returning from ACL surgery. Only Christian McCaffrey totaled more fantasy points in that span, despite Hall playing in a New York offense that put up the second-fewest yards per play (4.3). The Jets’ quarterbacks were truly disastrous without Aaron Rodgers, as New York averaged just 15.8 points per game (fourth-lowest) while providing Hall with the 43rd most runs in the red zone; the Jets had somehow just a carry inside the five yard line and none on the goal line last season. Hall had just 3.3 expected rushing touchdowns – yet he remained a fantasy star.

He is a special back who somehow leads all RBs in YPC after contact It is yards per route run since entering the league. Hall has a better YPRR rate than CMC despite playing in the bottom three and recovering from major knee surgery.

Running backs historically show real improvement in year 2 post-ACL and Hall surgery already led all RBs in receptions last season. Hall feels back to your old selfand a returning Rodgers will be a major upgrade at quarterback. The Jets have a dominant, overhauled defense your poor offensive line early in the draft and through free agency. Hall averaged the most fantasy points when your team was leading It is the most thoughtful second chances as the favorite last season, and the Jets are the favorites in 14 of 17 games entering 2024.

Given the lack of Tier 1 RBs, Hall is the second player on my board in 0.5 PPR leagues, but his ECR is the seventh. I’m closer to moving Hall to RB1 than RB3.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (ECR = RB8 vs My Rating = RB6)

Henry’s declining numbers over the last two seasons (when he yet scored 25 TDs) were another product of a bad Titans offense what Henry’s performance; he remained explosive and was in the top three in YPC after contact against stacked boxes in 2023. He’s 30 now, but Henry’s touches were limited early in his career, and he is also simply built different. Henry’s instant share was reduced to 53% last seasonbut he still led the league in rushing for the fourth time in five years on an offense that gained just 4.9 yards per play.

It’s hard to underestimate the size of the update Henry saw it when he left Tennessee for Baltimore this offseason. Henry came across More than 120 boxes for eight men than any other RB over the last three seasons, while Lamar Jackson helped a depleted Ravens RB group score the fourth most fantasy points last year. Gus Edwards benefited from a ton of short-range touchdownsIt is Henry’s style appears to be a great option for Baltimore’s attack; your YPC career jumped more than a meter full of shotgun and pistol (5.1 YPC).

Henry averaged nearly double 0.5 PPR fantasy points during victories throughout his careerand no team led more than the Ravens last season. Henry averaged 98.4 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) with 65 touchdowns in 59 wins, compared to 49.1 rushing yards (4.0) and just 15 scores in 44 losses during his career. Baltimore is designed win more than 11 games in 2024. The Crows would I would love to give Henry 300 loads in an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game last year, and King stay motivated.

Henry’s ADP is no longer as much of a gift as it was earlier this summer, but he remains undervalued on the draft boards.

De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins (ECR = RB11 vs My Rating = RB7)

Achane averaged the fourth-highest 0.5 PPR fantasy points (16.5) last season despite playing five snaps or fewer in two games and never topping 18 carries (or 38 snaps). He had the biggest YPC (7.8) and running DVOA of any running back in NFL history. Achane’s healthy pace for the entire season was 1,541 yards from scrimmage and 17 touchdowns, despite sharing the backfield with an RB who led the NFL in rushing TDs.

Acane Average 115 yards from the match while playing 40% of snaps. He led the league in yards after touch contact in between many other running categories. Acané surpassed Mostert and had the same number of first reading targets like Rachaad White in just nine healthy games as a rookie, so he legitimate receipt as well.

Even with a healthy Raheem Mostert, Achane had on average more opportunities per game (15.1) than Jahmyr Gibbs (14.0) did with David Montgomery. Mike McDaniel hopes a strengthened Achane has a bigger role in year 2and the 32 years old Mostert has a extensive injury history. Miami running backs piled up Over 50 points 0.5 PPR last season than any RB group since 2020, and a healthy Achane Could explode into an expanded role.

The argument against Achane mainly comes down to health, as he is ranked in the top 30 after playing just nine full games while dealing with multiple injuries as a rookie. He’s between 5 and 9 years old and weighs 188 pounds, so asking for more than 250 touches might be overkill.

Achane is without a doubt a riskier costume choice whose historical efficiency will certainly regress, but he also has advantages to win the league, given his individual ability and the likelihood of Mostert going down. Even if Achane misses games, few players are more likely to help win his week when they’re healthy.

Achane is a steal in the third round.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (ECR = RB21 vs My Rating = RB13)

It’s usually best not to target 29-year-old running backs with a history of losing games, but Conner’s rating is very low thanks to injury issues and Trey Benson. Conner scored the most RB fantasy points from week 13 of last season and finished third run yards above expectation, behind only Christian McCaffrey and Achane. Conner is an underrated three-down back who silently led all RBs Runs of 20+ yards last season.

The Cardinals were one of the 10 best offenses after Week 10 following Kyler Murray’s return last season when Arizona’s rushing attack led the NFL in YPC (5.3) and EPA per attempt. Murray should improve during his second year after surgery, and the Cardinals added Marvin Harrison Jr. guard Trey McBride looks like a star at tight endand Arizona ran the ball with the sixth-most seconds left on the play clock last season (despite shaky QB play before Murray’s return).

Benson could eventually emerge as good insurance for Conner’s fantasy managers, but the third rounder is currently in a fight for Arizona’s RB2 jobscored low in athletic ability and is unlikely to steal many touches. Conner is likely to miss a few games once again this season, but it cannot be stressed enough that ALL running backs are at significant risk for injury. And Conner has a real chance to be a top-five fantasy prospect when healthy.

You don’t even need to select Conner where I ranked him, as he is clearly the best target in the “RB dead zone”.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans (ECR = RB32 vs My Rating = RB25)

Spears was the only one RB will force more than 25 tackles in fewer than 100 races last season, and he ranked third among those who fell behind in first reading targets as a beginner. Spears recorded the fourth-most yards from scrimmage (1,837) your last year in college, where he especially prospered with the shotgun; Brian Callahan’s Bengals ranked third in shotgun rate last season.

Meanwhile, his competition for touches has gone from Derrick Henry to Tony Pollard. Pollard admitted that he didn’t feel fully healthy coming out of TightRope surgery until midway through last season, and there’s no doubt he improved in the final stretch. Still, their numbers remained disappointing in the second half, and Pollard somehow only finished as RB22 (11.5 fpg) despite seeing the second-most red zone touches (72) in the league behind a strong offensive line. Spears had more targets and 24% more receiving yards while operating 75 fewer routes than Pollard last year.

Spears may not have a long career in the NFLbut he is a much better bet than Pollard in 2024. Their ADPs should be reversed.