The Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings and Buffalo Sabers spent what feels like Titanic levels of time near the bottom of the Atlantic. Covered in plankton, they have the longest active playoff droughts in the NHL.
Ottawa gets bronze at seven, Detroit checks in at eight to claim silver and Buffalo is dominating like its gold medalist – the Summer McIntosh of missing the playoffs.
The Sabers have been absent from the postseason for 13 years, longer than any other player in league history.
So could this be the year one of these struggling clubs ends their drought?
Florida, Boston, Toronto and Tampa Bay still look like Atlantic class. If that’s the case, then the Sens, Wings and Sabers will be fighting for a single wild card spot. Metro Division squads like Pittsburgh, Washington, New Jersey and Philadelphia will also push for that spot.
So to recap, do we have seven teams looking for a playoff spot? Yes.
When framed this way, it seems like a long shot for any of the three Atlantic Division teams to make it out of the playoff picture. But in the world of NHL guesswork, we can’t just look at last season and assume history will repeat itself.
Tampa Bay just parted ways with Steve Stamkos and Mikhail Sergachev.
Boston’s decline has been predicted (very wrongly) for some years now.
Maybe Florida has a World Cup hangover or Sergei Bobrovsky returns to the episodes of inconsistency he had in the past.
Maybe this will be the year the Leafs implode during the regular season instead of the playoffs.
As a fan, you can drive yourself crazy worrying about what other teams can or cannot do. The Sens, Wings and Sabers will simply focus on what they control – their own performances. Their aim is to get to, say, at least 95 points this season, and things should sort themselves out.
So which of these three teams is most likely to do so?
Ottawa Senators:
2022-23 record: 39-35-8, 86 points, 6th in the Atlantic, six points outside the Wild Card Spot
2023-24 record: 37-41-4, 78 points, 7th in the Atlantic, 13 points outside the Wild Card spot
Additions: G Linus Ullmark, D Nick Jensen, F David Perrron, F Michael Amadio, F Noah Gregor
Subtractions: G Joonas Korpisalo, D Jakob Chychrun, D Erik Brannstrom, F Mathieu Joseph, F Parker Kelly, F Mark Kastelic
Ullmark is the big addition this season, turning a position of weakness into an area of strength. A rebound for Tim Stutzle and getting full seasons from Shane Pinto and Josh Norris will be huge. The other factors are rebalancing the lineup and signing vets who play well without the puck. The core is now another year older, tired of losing and certainly more focused after removing the incessant distractions of the past year.
However, the Sens are asking for a lot in several areas. With 35 points in 92 career games, is Ridly Greig ready to be in the top six? Can we count on Norris in terms of health? Will swapping Chychrun for Jensen suddenly stabilize the blue line? Is this inferior pairing defense good enough?
Detroit Red Wings:
2022-23 record: 35-37-10, 80 points, 7th in Atlantic, 12 points in Wild Card Spot
2023-24 record: 41-32-9, 91 points, 5th in Atlantic, lost tie for Wild Card Spot (regular wins)
Additions: G Cam Talbot, D Erik Gustafsson, F Vladimir Tarasenko, F Tyler Motte
Subtractions: G James Reimer, D Shayne Gostisbehere, D Jake Walman, F David Perron, F Daniel Sprong, F Robby Fabbri
Last season, Detroit came as close as it could to getting out of its playoff funk. But goaltending duo Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon are stuck thinking about this fall. Their combined age is 68 and the Wings have invested a combined total of $3.4 million in them. It’s also a tall order, almost as tall as he is, for 21-year-old Simon Edvinsson to come in and be an impact player straight away. Shayne Gostibehere’s 56 points at the back won’t be easy to replace.
Buffalo sabers
2022-23 record: 42-33-7, 91 points, 5th in the Atlantic, one point outside the Wild Card Spot
2023-24 record: 39-37-6, 84 points, 6th in Atlantic, seven points in Wild Card Spot
Additions: F Jason Zucker, F Beck Malenstyn, F Ryan McLeod, F Sam Lafferty, F Nicolas Aube-Kubel, G James Reimer
Subtractions: F Jeff Skinner, F Matt Savoie, D Victor Olofsson, F Zemgus Girgensons
Anchored by Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and Bowen Byram, this excellent young blue line core is now another year older. They also renewed their fourth line very well. But the Sabers didn’t do much else in the offseason. Zucker is not an ideal replacement for Skinner. And giving up Matthew Savoie for Ryan McLeod is questionable, although it seems like the kind of rebalancing act they were trying to pull off in Ottawa this summer.
If you look at the strength of the Atlantic Division and the many evenly ranked teams vying for a single playoff spot (two at best), then combine that with the question marks in Ottawa, Buffalo and Detroit, it will be a surprise if a of the Atlantic playoff droughts to end next spring.
But stranger things have happened and if we had to pick one it would be Ottawa. The list of distractions last season was long: injuries, coaching change, GM change, ownership change, Pinto’s suspension for a game-playing violation and being penalized for a first-round pick.
Now it’s a renewed and focused start this fall, a much-needed new voice behind the bench and the removal of all the distractions of the past. These intangible assets could be the ace up Ottawa’s sleeve.
Related: Senators agree to terms on entry-level contract with 2024 first-rounder Carter Yakemchuk
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