Opinion: It’s time to recognize the truth about Karlsson’s trade

A year ago, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager and president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas made one of the biggest trades in franchise history, acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks.

We revisit the trade details – as well as the winners and losers in the aftermath – earlier today. But often lost in the “facts” of trade are reactionary opinions, hindsight biases and talk around the value of first-round midterm choices.

It’s time to put the narratives aside and focus on the facts. And the facts are that, in almost every way, on paper and in practice, this still remains a great trade for the Penguins – and, at the time, fans strongly agreed:

Even taking a quick look at the responses to the original trade announcement, almost all of Pittsburgh was elated: Dubas managed to not only free himself from four bad contracts with some deadline – including Jeff Petry, Jan Rutta and Mikael Granlund, all of whom produced meager results for the Penguins and combined for $14 million against the cap space — but also gained $3 million in cap space when all was said and done.

The only positive asset Dubas yielded was a 2024 first-round pick, which, by itself, typically doesn’t yield a generational Norris-winning defenseman along with extra cap space and the expulsion of several bad contracts.

When you discard all the talk surrounding the results of the Penguins’ 2023-24 campaign — and Karlsson’s generally positive but “mixed” first season with his new team — this is a trade that any GM anywhere on any day of the week would do in a heartbeat if they were trying to win hockey games.

And in the situation the Penguins found themselves in last summer, this type of move made sense. They were coming off their first postseason loss in 17 years, still confident that they could be playoff contenders if they could simply generate more offense and put more pucks in the net on a regular basis. The change was made to help them achieve this.

As mentioned previously, the results were mixed. The power play didn’t improve at all for a number of reasons, and the Penguins were a comically horrible finishing team as they were a year or two before. And even if Karlsson didn’t lift the team to the somewhat unrealistic heights that were expected – he scored 11 goals and 56 points, both top marks for Penguins defensemen in 2023-24 but far below his production the previous season – he contributed largely to the team’s offensive attack.

Per Money, Karlsson blew every other Penguins defenseman out of the water with a 60.9% expected on-ice goals share (xGF%), with the next closest defenseman being frequent partner Marcus Pettersson at 49.3%. He also led all Penguins defensemen in expected goals on ice per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 2.88. The only other defenseman in band 2 was PO Joseph (2.91), while everyone else was in band 3 or higher.

But numbers aside, the bottom line is this: The essence of the trade itself, both conceptual and situational, was a huge win for the Penguins. Regardless of what fans and media think the team should have done last summer, the organization’s true goal was to remain competitive without mortgaging the team’s future.

One can debate the merits of trading first-round picks. The chances of first-rounders becoming genuine NHL stars are very low, but even if this pick – eventually traded by the Sharks to Buffalo, who used it to recruit center Konsta Helenius – plays as an NHL regular, there is no GM in the world who wouldn’t have given up on the chance to add one of the best defensemen of the cap era, coming off a 101-point campaign.

It remains to be seen what kind of long-term impact the Karlsson trade will have on the Penguins’ future. It’s reasonable to expect more from him next season, and it’s reasonable to expect him to deliver. It’s also fair to recognize that the Penguins will be responsible for $10 million of his total cap hit for another three yearswhich may not bode well for them as they try to add young talent in the future.

But if the Penguins are still trying to compete now, he helps. If they aren’t, his cap hit doesn’t matter at all, and he will still have value on the trade market if they want to explore that option.

Either way, this was a phenomenal trade the day it happened and – given the contracts the Penguins would still be responsible for – it still rings true. But perhaps the best thing for everyone in this situation is to just move on, sit back and see how it all plays out in 2023-24.

Because – to be honest – I think we’re all tired of talking about it.

Related: Revisiting the Erik Karlsson Trade

Related: Four Reasons Why Erik Karlsson Will Be Better in 2024-25

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