Arsenal will beat Manchester United as long as they make the game as boring as possible

To adapt Johan Cruyff’s view of Italian opponents, Manchester United can’t win, but you can lose to them. Erik ten Hag’s side struggle to control football, space or anything of note, but they helped derail Liverpool’s season in two uncontrolled leagues It is cup games while Chelsea, Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur have also failed to win at Old Trafford this season.

This should serve as a small note of caution for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal, for whom nothing but victory will do on Sunday as they chase their first Premier League title in 20 years. Arsenal have an abysmal record at United, having not won a league game in front of fans at Old Trafford since 2006, but in all current respects they should be crushing it Team disheveled and ravaged by Ten Hag injuries separate. The visiting fans will travel north with thoughts of avenging the painful 6-1 and 8-2 defeats in a stadium that turned out to be a cemetery.

Arteta’s most difficult task may be to prevent his players from feeling like children in a sweet shop, dizzy from the time and space on offer against a United team that can look empty in midfield. Rushing forward to take advantage and punish United as much as possible can lead to dropped passes and a seesaw game, which puts United’s attacking talent and speed into play. Arsenal want control; United need chaos.

Liverpool know all about this, massacring several attacks as they tried to waste an FA Cup tie and draw in the league with United. Statistically dominant, Liverpool were, to some extent, simply unlucky. But his direct and disorderly style also contributed to the flow of both games. They squandered numerical advantages and United counter-attacked on the back of Liverpool’s failed counter-attacks.

Over the past two seasons, Arsenal have been described as somewhere between Manchester City and Liverpool’s style of play. This season they have moved towards the City side of the spectrum and it may be wise to emulate the slower, more deliberate approach of their title rivals on Sunday.

Since the start of the 2016-17 Premier League season, the visiting Old Trafford team have completed 600 passes or more on seven occasions, resulting in five wins. Unsurprisingly, Pep Guardiola’s City are responsible for four of the seven games, although two defeats show that possession does not make a team immune to being caught. City’s most dominant and impressive display at Old Trafford happened two seasons ago, when he completed 762 passes in a comfortable victory. Guardiola’s post-match thoughts that day were revealing.

“The best way to silence Old Trafford is to have the ball with lots of passes and attack the box at the right times and we did that,” Guardiola said. “We have the desire when we don’t have it [the ball] to get it back and after that, play and play and play. In order not to attack faster you will score more goals, just to get at the right pace. I love getting to the boxes, not being in the boxes.”

One team that does not feature in the list of Old Trafford visitors with the most passes since 2016 is Arsenal, despite being nominally a possession-based team during this period. Arteta’s side have lost 3-2 and 3-1 in their last two visits to the league, losing periods of dominance and being pummeled.

Guardiola’s City are the only team in the Premier League’s top seven to win at Old Trafford this season, with United also hosting Arsenal and Newcastle. They are also the only one of these five opponents to keep a clean sheet. Of these teams, City recorded the slowest ‘direct speed’ at 1.38 meters per second. This is an Opta metric that measures how quickly or slowly a team advances the ball down the field. Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Fulham won at Old Trafford with faster direct speed, partly due to having just 22, 31 and 47 per cent possession respectively.

This excerpt from Liverpool’s FA Cup defeat to United illustrates the risks of playing too directly. Virgil van Dijk’s distribution is an important weapon for Liverpool, but on this occasion he attempted a risky inside pass to Alexis Mac Allister when his team had comfortable possession at the back. The pass is well read by Scott McTominay, who steals possession from Mac Allister and starts a United break. The result was Alejandro Garnacho one-on-one with Jarrel Quansah and United were awarded a corner.

This is a scenario Arsenal need to avoid. After naming the same team in victories over Chelsea, Spurs and Bournemouth, Arteta is likely to stick to a winning formula. That would mean Thomas Partey in midfield, a player whose willingness to receive the ball under pressure in his own half gives Arsenal’s play an added risk.

Partey likes to turn and take the ball beyond opponents, while Arteta’s alternative choice, Jorginho, prefers safer one- and two-touch passes. Partey’s approach could make Arsenal more incisive, but potentially more vulnerable. Arsenal took six points with Partey in the team against Chelsea and Spurs but conceded their two worst expected goals against numbers in 36 league games this season.

Regardless of Arteta’s choice, Arsenal need to avoid riding the Old Trafford rollercoaster. Given the rate at which United concede chances and shots, there is no need to take absurd risks. Opportunities will present themselves. Slowing down could be the best way for Arsenal to progress towards the Premier League title.

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