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The absurd truth behind Arsenal’s title race and why Mikel Arteta is over it

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The contrast said almost as much as the numbers on the table. In the final minutes of Arsenal’s victory over Manchester United, Mikel Arteta was “nervous”. How could he not be? This was the title. This was the last chance. It wasn’t a pretty victory, as the coach also admitted, but that is almost predictable at this point. You don’t go as deep into a title race like this without lasting victories that are about to top it. This guaranteed the feeling in the dressing room afterwards it was one of relief and liberation.

“They are all buzzing there,” said Arteta. “We really wanted to live in the moment.” The squad had already said this in the locker room before the game, that they had to “deserve it”.

Now it marks a contrast to virtually every Arsenal season this generation. This squad goes into the last round of the season with the title still alive.

They haven’t been this close since 2004, when, of course, they won, but that wasn’t the case. That’s because Arsene Wenger’s invincibles were so good that they inevitably ended early. This is something else Arsenal haven’t felt since 1998-99. Arteta’s squad have already surpassed that team 25 years ago and not just because they have already picked up eight more points with one game to spare. What Arsenal lost their penultimate league game, away to Leeds United, to decisively concede the lead to Manchester United.

That Arsenal beat United in the penultimate match to put pressure on Manchester City on Tuesday at Tottenham Hotspur. It’s still the Gunners who need a favor as they face a triple team, of course, but from a totally different point of view.

It also makes the next few days a different experience for almost everyone at the club. There are few left who will remember that week in 1998-99 – or even 1988-89 – but they will undoubtedly be consulted. Old stories are perfect for relieving pressure.

With the immense challenge of keeping up with Man City, Mikel Arteta has spoken about how they have had 'no margin for error since January' (PA Wire)

With the challenge of keeping up with Man City so immense, Mikel Arteta has spoken about how they have had ‘no margin for error since January’ (PA Wire)

This is something Arteta has been aware of throughout this project. As suffocating as a week like this may seem, the Spaniard wants his players to have fun, to feel it. That’s what they play for, to be in contention when necessary.

“This is part of our journey, having a great chance of winning the Premier League,” he explained. “We wanted to try that. We will have a normal week of preparation to try to be in the best space to compete and beat Everton and then live up to the occasion as well.”

That has also been the message throughout this title challenge since January – to play, to savor.

This was one of the reasons why Arteta showed pride in the team. Of course there is another element. A subject that the Arsenal manager is unlikely to ever address, given that he was assistant manager at Manchester City before that.

This is the feeling that Arsenal are facing the almost impossible. Now it is likely that Arteta’s team will reach 89 points and that will still not be enough to win the title. There was a touch of defiance on this subject in the manager’s comments after United’s victory.

He talked about how they “had no room for error since January – we have to keep winning and winning and winning in any context.” That’s pretty much what they got, barring a defeat to Aston Villa. In the 17 games since the turn of the year, Arsenal have won 15 and drawn one, a draw at the Etihad that so few have achieved.

They had to be close to perfect and they pretty much were. That run has contributed to 27 league wins this season, which is a club record. Arteta was also keen to bring this up.

Leandro Trossard's goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford – meaning this team goes into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)Leandro Trossard's goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford – meaning this team goes into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)

Leandro Trossard’s goal gave Arsenal victory at Old Trafford – meaning this team goes into the final day of the season with the title still alive (AP)

“It’s the most in the history of this club in 130 years,” said the coach. “That’s not progress, that’s history.” That was a line that stood out in the manager’s post-match press conference and there is undeniably a significant element of self-service to it.

There is also a deeper truth. Arteta is right to say it is history, but not in the way people think. Put bluntly, and as Liverpool have repeatedly demonstrated, it is absurd for a team to achieve so many victories and so many points and not win the title.

It has been a growing problem, stemming from the Premier League’s financial disparity, for more than two decades, but City have taken it to the extreme. This has been the required level. Even if Pep Guardiola’s team doesn’t reach the 100, 98 or 93 points of previous title wins, the challenge of keeping up with them in any context is immense. Teams really need to push themselves and that is exceptionally difficult to sustain, as Jurgen Klopp found out.

The German’s departure also shows how this is a point worth emphasizing: just following City until the final day is a huge achievement. This is essentially what Arteta wanted to say. People will shoot, but it’s true.

Others will point to the defeat against Aston Villa or the expenses as reasons why they should have won this title, but they are wrong. A defeat in the last 17 games should not take a team out of contention in this way. Such setbacks should be a normal part of the contest, they actually enrich football. Twists and turns are often what determine title races.

It has already been noted that, despite all the pace of this confrontation, so far it hasn’t seemed that fun. This is due to the knowledge that City are highly unlikely to slip up. They are too good. There is a lot of power and strength in the long term. Perhaps the greatest coach of all time was put into near-perfect conditions, with little expense spared, so he has this team almost exactly how he wants it. This is the scale on which the city of Abu Dhabi has managed to work.

Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)

Arsenal set a new club record with 27 league wins this season (AP)

And that’s the question of expenses. If you want to keep up with them, you will have to spend. There is no choice. This is the minimum limit. In fact, Arsenal have overcome this aspect, as their wage bill is much lower than City’s. This remains the best metric for evaluating expenses, as there is a 90 percent correlation between this value and league position. Arsenal are in the best possible position at the moment. They improved on last season and put pressure on the champions until the end.

City need to win their last two games. The penultimate, away from Tottenham, will be strange given the emotional context. Home fans may not necessarily want to win as it could hand the title to their big rivals. Meanwhile, Arsenal need a favor. Of course, Arteta will be watching this game, as he does in every big match. Some of the players too. Others will seek to do something else.

All of this influences how distinct this week will be. Arsenal just need to feel it and not think about any of it.

They shouldn’t even think about City. They did their part and that is an achievement on its own terms. This is a significant contrast to the previous two decades. You just need to look at the numbers on the table.



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