TikTok promises to fight its ban. Here’s how the battle could play out

WCongress moved a step closer to banning TikTok in the US this weekend when the House of Representatives passed a bill calling on the app’s Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to sell it or face a nationwide ban. That bill now appears destined to pass the Senate and be signed into law by President Biden. “It’s almost a lockdown at this point,” says Bryan Cunningham, executive director of UC Irvine’s cybersecurity policy and research institute.

But the bill’s legislative success doesn’t mean TikTok will disappear anytime soon. The new law, if passed, will face legal challenges, antitrust hurdles and public backlash. Here’s what’s next for the fate of the immensely popular video platform.

How the Anti-TikTok Bill Gained Momentum

For many months, members of the House of Representatives, and especially conservatives, have been confronted with the spread of TikTok in the US, arguing that it is a tool for Chinese propaganda and for the surveillance of the 170 million Americans who use it. Their complaints intensified in the midst of the Israel-Hamas War, when politically charged content about the war flooded the app.

In March, the Chamber approved a bill that gave ByteDance two options: sell the app or be banned. But progress on this bill stagnant when he arrived at the Senate. Senators on both sides urged caution and expressed doubts that the bill would withstand a legal challenge.

However, the House found another way forward this month: They attached an anti-TikTok bill similar to a US foreign policy package that includes aid to Ukraine and Israel. The package measure that included the ban, as well as sanctions against Russia and Iran, was approved by 360 votes to 58. And this week, the Senate is expected to vote on it. Senator Chuck Schumer wrote to Washington Publish that “The Senate is now ready to take the next step.”

Senators who have already expressed skepticism about a TikTok bill, including Maria Cantwell, said they would support this version. And last week, President Biden urged the Senate to “quickly follow” the House’s lead in passing the bill.

See more information: In the face of US ban threats, TikTok’s parent company is more profitable than ever

But the project faces significant challenges

There’s one big difference between this updated bill and the previous one: it gives ByteDance more time to sell TikTok. Instead of a six-month deadline, this bill allows Bytedance nine months to sell its stake, with a possible three-month extension for an ongoing sale. This new timeline means that TikTok won’t have to divest or be shut down until after the US election — much to the chagrin of people who believe TikTok could be used by the Chinese government to influence the results.

Many experts have said that concluding a deal in six months would have been nearly impossible and that a year is still ambitious. For comparison purposes, AOL’s merger with Time Warner, for US$182 billion, in 2000, took about a year to complete, while Facebook’s acquisition of WhatsApp, for US$19 billion, in 2014, took seven months to overcome regulatory hurdles.

Additionally, finding a buyer for TikTok can be tricky. TikTok made US$16 billion in sales in the US last year and is expected to rack up a huge price tag that only a handful of big tech companies can afford. Any major potential buyer will face intense scrutiny from the EU and the Biden administration, which have challenged takeover attempts by tech giants such as Microsoft, Amazon and Google, citing antitrust laws. Meanwhile, China has vowed to oppose the forced sale of the company.

What moves can Tiktok make?

TikTok mobilized its fanatical users to try to turn public opinion against the project. A MoveOn Petition asking President Biden not to ban the app attracted more than 30,000 signatures. The company has also indicated that it will wage an all-out legal war to prevent the law from being enacted. The company has already had success in the courts: In 2020, federal judges blocked an attempt by President Trump to ban TikTok or force its sale.

Michael Beckerman, TikTok’s head of public policy for the Americas, wrote in an internal memo obtained by CNN that the company “would go to court for a legal challenge.” He wrote: “This is the beginning, not the end of this long process.”

TikTok will likely try to challenge the bill on constitutional grounds. A company spokesperson said the bill “would trample on the free speech rights of 170 million Americans.” This line of argument has received support from some civil rights organizations. A representative of the American Civil Liberties Union. called the account “unconstitutional,” and Nadine Farid Johnson, policy director at the Knight First Amendment Institute, wrote in a statement that the TikTok bill would “infringe” on “Americans’ First Amendment right to access information, ideas, and media from abroad.”

UC Irvine’s Cunningham says TikTok could try to challenge the equal protection law to argue that it hurts foreign companies. He also expects a vigorous challenge based on free speech. But he doubts either challenge will be successful. “It doesn’t actually prohibit any speech,” says Cunningham. “It would be like trying to argue that the FCC can’t regulate who can buy and own TV stations because Americans are entitled to CBS in Chicago. They do not. They have the right to freedom of expression, but not to a specific platform.”

What will happen if ByteDance doesn’t sell?

Even if ByteDance refuses to sell TikTok, triggering the ban, the app wouldn’t disappear from the United States overnight. Having TikTok on your phone would not be illegal. But the app would be pulled from app stores and become ineligible for updating, making it more buggy and less functional over time.

TikTok fans could use a VPN to impersonate foreign users or simply download the app in another country. But barriers to entry and declining user experience would mean TikTok would lose its market advantage and likely slowly disappear over time.

“It can’t actually be banned entirely,” says Cunningham. “But the law will create a huge competitive advantage for any competitor.”