The true future of flying cars

AAfter 27 years of developing commercial aircraft, my involvement with electric aircraft began suddenly one afternoon in February 2017. I was asked to comment on the eHang 184, a Chinese passenger drone, which could, in theory, provide automated taxi services in Dubai. The oft-quoted portion of the resulting article will likely appear in my obituary.

“Dr. Wright added that he would not volunteer for an early flight. ‘I would have to be taken on board kicking and screaming.'”

My first encounter with Chinese flying cars, or electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), proved indicative in the years that followed. China has soared with nascent technology. One of the biggest developments occurred in April, when the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) received a “production certificate” to EHang’s EH216-S, the first time an eVTOL has received such approval anywhere. The move opens the door for a commercial launch. But other companies are also keeping their eyes on the sky. The CarryAll eVTOL from AutoFlight, another Chinese company, obtained a “type certificate” in March CAAC, a key step towards regulatory approval. Other local Chinese competitors such as XPeng It is Vertaxi are also creating buzz.

In fact, China is now responsible for around 50% of the world’s eVTOL models. The government also committed to creating “demonstration zones”, although the details remain unclear.

Clearly, China is ahead in the eVTOL race. Why does this happen and will this leadership be sustained? To answer, we must consider the two major challenges that all competitors in this field face: one posed by technology, the other by humans.

The first challenge is easily stated: new battery technology unlocked the eVTOL era, but now it is its biggest limitation. Batteries are still capable of storing and delivering only a small fraction of the energy of gasoline, our old friend and enemy. Until another breakthrough in battery technology occurs, the industry will be limited to premium services in niche applications. Put another way, when and if a new wave of batteries hits the industry and scatters competitors, the side that rides that wave will receive the much bigger prize. China is well positioned herebut perhaps the West, with its long experience in conventional aircraft, can regain the lead.

Now let’s move on to the second, more elusive challenge. China is the undisputed king of small-scale consumer drones, but there is a huge gap between them and conventional passenger aircraft. This is an area that most of us value every time we board a flight: reliability. How big is this chasm? The answer is about a factor 1 million, and the methods and technology to bridge this “six-zero gap” are only achieved with decades of experience. Here the West is certainly ahead with its mature aviation industries and governing bodies.

So can China skip this?gap of six zeros”? Probably in due time. I point here to the example of the Comac C919, a commercial plane with a strange resemblance to the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737, the most intensely competitive segment of the airline market. The birth of C919 was long and painful, supported by the enormous weight of the Chinese state. Despite a bumpy journey, the C919 survived and is now entering passenger service.

When it comes to eVTOLs, the new technologies of this brave new world are acting as a great leveler, with all sides scrambling to present a new set of questions that need to be asked, further eroding the West’s capabilities. historical advantage in aviation. This point goes even further: the history of the West can sometimes act as an obstacle, as there is a well-founded temptation to try to evaluate these new machines in terms created around familiar designs such as helicopters and light aircraft, and China could use this as another opportunity to move forward.

The idea of ​​flying cars is a lot of fun, of course, and I’m happy to live in a world where such machines exist. But I don’t think they represent the future of mass personal air transport beyond a slightly larger niche than today’s helicopters for the rich. The industry will probably look more like today’s budget air travel, with “sub-regional” airlines operating in rather large public spaces and looking less glamorous than I would like, with price searches on booking sites, queues and ticket drop-offs. baggage. .

Finally, the tribulations of creating eVTOLs could divert attention from a related wave that explores the same technologies and builds on China’s existing strengths: unmanned aviation.

The conflict in Ukraine provided a brutal demonstration of huge potential here, with attacks being carried out deep into the territory of both sides. The combination of repurposing passenger eVTOLs for cargo-only transport is a sweet spot for electric aviation. I’m looking forward to the flying delivery trucks of the future more than taxis.

Watch this (air) space…