Prepare for a Tough Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and is expected to be difficult. A record number of strong storms could form with a shift from El Niño to La Niña this summer and unusually warm waters churn in the Atlantic Ocean.

There is an 85% chance of an “above normal” season, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This predictions between 17 to 25 storms strong enough to earn a name (reaching wind speeds of at least 39 miles per hour). It also predicts eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven major hurricanes.

Those are big numbers — the most cited storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes that NOAA has ever forecast in its May forecasts. For comparison, there were an average of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes per season between 1991 and 2020.

“This season appears to be extraordinary in many ways,” NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad said at a news conference. “The key this year, as with any year, is to be prepared and stay prepared.”

An El Niño weather pattern is currently in play, which can often hold back the Atlantic hurricane season because it usually means increased vertical wind shear that can destroy a storm as it tries to gain strength. But the current El Niño is weakening and is expected to come to an end In the next months.

There is now a 77% chance of a La Niña pattern forming sometime between August and October. La Niña tends to have the opposite effect on the Atlantic hurricane season, reducing vertical wind shear and allowing storms to intensify unabated.

Rising temperatures with climate change are another risk factor. Hurricanes became more intense with global warming, as storms draw strength from thermal energy at the sea surface. Record high water temperatures have recently been recorded across the tropical Atlantic, and the heat is expected to persist into the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season, between August and October.

These high temperatures also allow storms to intensify quickly, giving communities less time to prepare for their impact. All of the strongest storms, Category 5 hurricanes, to make landfall in the US in the last 100 years in the US were much weaker tropical storms or less just three days earlier, with an average dwell time of just 50 hours.

“The big ones are fast,” Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, said on the call. “That’s why I’m saying this time they don’t care about our schedules. Preparation is absolutely everything.”

Other meteorologists have made equally worrying predictions for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season. Penn State scientists forecast a record 33 named storms for the Atlantic. The Climate and Tropical Climate Research Group at Colorado State University predicts a “extremely active”Season with 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes.

NOAA also estimates the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season, a measure of overall storm activity. This year, it is forecasting the second highest ACE score ever announced during the May forecast.

“In recent years, when we have seen high ACE numbers, those have historically been the years with the most destructive hurricanes,” Spinrad said.