We are at a decisive moment for US climate goals

Greenhouse gas emissions are falling in the US thanks to big investments in clean energy and transportation — but it’s not happening fast enough, a new report shows. As a result, the US is not on track to meet the ambitious climate goals set by the Biden administration as the president enters his final months in office. Political upheaval and rising demand for electricity from AI, cryptocurrencies and electric vehicles risk making these goals even further out of reach.

The most recently forecast on clean energy and climate progress in the US, from research firm Rhodium Group, paints a worrying picture of what is at stake this election season. The Biden administration managed to pass historic climate legislation that could eliminate a significant portion of America’s carbon footprint. But these policies are in danger due to the existence of a conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court and the prospect of another Donald Trump presidency. Even if climate policies survive, they will not be enough to keep up with new technologies that make it more difficult to control greenhouse gas emissions.

Rhodium has modeled future outcomes based on federal and state policies and different economic factors. This year, Rhodium also had to assess the potential impact of a boom in power-hungry data centers used to train AI or mine cryptocurrencies. They are expected to add even more pressure to an aging grid that was already bracing for increased demand for electricity from charging and manufacturing electric vehicles.

By 2035, electricity demand could be 24 to 29 percent higher than in 2023, according to Rhodium. Transport would be responsible for almost half of this growth. But data centers have also become an important player, expected to account for 22% of additional electricity demand. And unlike EVs, which replace existing demand for fossil fuels for transportation, data centers generally represent new energy demand.

Based on current policies in place, U.S. greenhouse gas emissions would fall by 32 to 43 percent by the end of the decade, compared to a 2005 baseline, according to Rhodium estimates. But in a scenario where electricity demand in data centers grows nearly threefold by 2035, energy sector emissions would increase by 56 percent compared to Rhodium’s central estimate. The US could potentially meet its target several years late, reducing emissions by 38 to 56 percent by 2035.

This implies steeper annual drops in pollution than those achieved by the US in the last two decades. And it only works with new policies set by the Biden administration aimed at eliminating emissions from the energy, transportation and oil and gas fields.

Shortly after taking office, Biden recommitted the US to the Paris agreement to curb climate change – an agreement that Trump tried to abandon. As part of the agreement, Biden established a Goal for 2030 to halve US climate pollution compared to the 2005 baseline. It was ambitious, but roughly in line with what to look for show is necessary to meet the global goals of the Paris agreement.

But each of these policies faces legal challenges. Historic Supreme Court rulings since the Trump administration have restricted the authority of federal agencies to regulate the industry. Courts aside, climate policy could fall apart if Trump is re-elected.

Trump says he would try withdraw the US from the Paris agreement again, and the Republican Party’s position on energy in its official report platform is “pierce, baby, pierce” (in all caps). If Republicans gain control of the White House It is Congress in November, they could also work to dismantle the Reducing Inflation Act signed into law in 2022 as the largest climate and clean energy investment to date in the US. Notably, crypto and Silicon Valley bigwigs have begun cozying up to the Trump campaign, with the Republican Party platform pledging to “champion innovation” (aka reduced regulation) in crypto and AI.

“The person who wins the White House in November will have the opportunity to leave their mark [greenhouse gas] regulations, whether defending them in court and seeking additional action or repealing them wholesale,” Rhodium’s analysis says.

At this point, the US will likely have to pass more legislation to reach its current 2030 climate goals. That has been an uphill battle, even during the Biden administration. And everything the US does on climate in the future will, of course, have a global impact. The USA has more data centers than any other country and is the largest Bitcoin mining center. It’s also still the best in the world oil It is gas producer and the country with the most carbon emissions after China.

That doesn’t mean the U.S. has to sacrifice economic growth for a healthy climate, the Rhodium report highlights. Economic strength and greenhouse gas emissions have “largely decoupled,” he says, with the U.S. economy growing faster than its carbon footprint in eight of the last 10 years.